India’s Beef Exports: A Closer Look at Trends Amid Controversy and Claims of Decline

India has been a leading player in the global beef market for several years, with buffalo meat (carabeef) being the primary product exported. Despite claims by prominent human rights organizations, beef exports from India have shown marginal growth over recent years, particularly under the tenure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While some reports suggest a decline due to factors like cow vigilante attacks and tougher laws on cow protection, data from India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) presents a different picture, showing a steady, albeit modest, increase in beef exports.

A Closer Look at Export Trends

According to data from APEDA, India’s beef exports were at their peak in fiscal 2014-15, with 14.75 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) of beef shipped abroad. This marked the highest level in over a decade, a 7.9% increase compared to the previous year’s export of 13.66 LMT. However, the following year saw a sharp decline in exports, with numbers dropping by almost 11%, down to 13.14 LMT in 2015-16.

This decline coincided with a significant political and social development: the tragic killing of Mohammad Akhlaq in September 2015, who was lynched by a mob over alleged beef consumption in Dadri, Uttar Pradesh. This incident highlighted the growing tension surrounding beef in India, where cow protection laws had become increasingly stringent under the Modi government. This period also saw a surge in mob violence and political rhetoric that targeted the meat industry.

Despite the initial drop in exports, India’s beef trade rebounded slightly in the next few years. In 2016-17, exports rose by 1.2%, reaching 13.30 LMT. The following fiscal year, 2017-18, saw a further 1.3% increase to 13.48 LMT. These figures suggest that while challenges existed, the decline in exports was not as severe as some reports had suggested.

Human Rights Watch Claims vs. Export Data

A February 2023 report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) argued that the beef exports from India had been significantly impacted by the rise in cow protection laws and attacks by vigilante groups. HRW pointed to the decline in export value as evidence of this negative impact, claiming that the policies implemented by the Modi government, particularly in Uttar Pradesh — one of India’s largest meat-producing states — had created uncertainty for the industry.

However, the data from APEDA does not support a dramatic fall in the quantity of exports over the past decade. While the value of beef exports has fluctuated, with a notable drop in 2017-18 despite a small rise in quantity, the total amount of beef exported has remained relatively stable in recent years. For example, in 2017-18, beef exports increased from 13.30 LMT to 13.48 LMT, though the value dropped from Rs 26,303 crore to Rs 25,988 crore. This discrepancy between quantity and value may be attributed to global price variations, rather than a fundamental decline in export activity.

Declining Export Value

While the quantity of beef exports has remained relatively consistent, there has been a noticeable decline in the value of these exports. For instance, in the fiscal year 2017-18, the total value of beef exports decreased despite an increase in the quantity shipped. This drop in value may be due to a combination of factors, including fluctuations in global beef prices, competition from other meat-producing countries, and potential shifts in consumer demand for buffalo meat.

Ajay Sahai, director-general and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), pointed out that there is no definitive correlation between the quantity of beef exported and its value. In fact, other data sources suggest that both the value and quantity of Indian beef exports have increased over the last few years, indicating that the situation may not be as dire as reported by some sources.

India’s Status as a Global Leader in Beef Exports

Despite challenges, India remains the world’s largest exporter of beef, primarily due to its competitive pricing and the affordability of buffalo meat. According to industry estimates, India exports buffalo meat worth approximately $4 billion annually. The country’s beef exports dominate markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with countries like Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Jordan being key importers.

However, the country’s beef export industry faces growing uncertainties due to geopolitical factors, such as the rising cost of freight and insurance, especially in the wake of military conflicts in regions like the Red and Black Sea. These external pressures may limit the growth potential of India’s beef exports in the coming years.

Conclusion: A Complex Picture

While reports of a significant decline in India’s beef exports, especially buffalo meat, are based on certain interpretations of export value, the data from APEDA presents a more nuanced picture. India’s beef exports have faced some challenges, particularly linked to social and political factors, but the overall trend shows a steady, albeit modest, increase in export quantities over the last decade. The fluctuations in export value, however, point to the complexity of global meat markets, where factors like pricing, supply chain issues, and international competition play crucial roles.

As India navigates its place as the world’s largest beef exporter, the sector will need to balance domestic concerns, international demand, and evolving trade regulations to maintain its dominant position in the global market.